SNP 20-seat target is starting to look out of reach
February 18, 2010 by Hamish Macdonell · 162 Comments
ALEX Salmond’s stated aim of increasing the size of the SNP parliamentary group at Westminster from seven to 20 at the General Election always looked on the ambitious side.
And, according to a new poll published in The Sun today it is not just overly ambitious, it is now actually slipping out of reach.
Today’s YouGov poll put the SNP on 21 per cent, in equal second place with the Conservatives. Labour is well ahead on 37 per cent with the Liberal Democrats back on 15 per cent.
If that is carried through to the election, the Nationalists may hold on to the seats they currently have, but they would be very lucky to get any more.
There are, of course, important provisos here. It is very difficult to accurately forecast the winners of particular seats on the basis of a general, Scotland-wide poll.
For instance, the Nationalist vote could hold up well in its own areas and decline in areas where it has no chance of taking any new constituencies.
This is also a YouGov poll, which is conducted on the basis of internet interviews, not taken from randomly selected members of the public.
But Caledonian Mercury understands that the sample size for Scotland was nearly 600, which gives it a reasonably authoritative base.
Some critics have suggested that the base was only 189 for Scotland but the figures published today take in two YouGov polls, producing a combined sample of 572. While most proper polls would need a sample size of 1,000, this is a decent sample size – if not as large as perhaps analysts would like it to be.
It should also be remembered that YouGov has also proved itself a fairly reliable indicator of political fortunes in previous elections so all those who would love to dismiss this as a ‘unionist newspaper plot’ or as a ‘misleadingly small sample’ should, perhaps, think again.
This does not give a clear picture of what is going to happen in this year’s election but it builds on a perception already established by other polls: the Liberal Democrats are being squeezed by Labour and the Tories and so, to a less extent, are the Nationalists.
Two years ago, when Mr Salmond announced his 20-seat target, it looked ambitious but attainable.
The SNP victory in Glasgow East appeared to show that the Nationalists could make inroads in Labour’s traditional west of Scotland heartlands.
But since then, the SNP Government has run into problems, it has been knocked back in key policy areas and has been hit with the sort of difficult issues – auctioning off lunches and rows over help for a convicted benefit cheat – that has tarnished its reputation.
This has happened as the Tories have grown in strength in Scotland. The Tories were the pariahs of Scottish politics for so long that many of those in the other parties assumed this was the natural order of things and the Tories would remain out of favour for ever.
But a poll rating of 21 per cent? A poll rating which puts them equal with the SNP? That is the sign of a party which has transformed its fortunes since its wipeout in 1997.
This doesn’t mean the Conservative party is suddenly going to secure a host of extra seats in Scotland, but if it were to gain three or four with strong showings elsewhere, that would be enough to curb quite a few potential SNP successes.
Much of this turnaround is down to ripples from the Cameron effect south of the border. The Tories are seen by many as the government-in-waiting and this will boost its fortunes north of the border as well as down south.
But it is also a recognition of the feeling, held by many voters, that this Westminster election is a battle for the government of the UK and there are only two parties involved in that fight.
The SNP has always done worse in Westminster elections than it has in Holyrood elections and this year looks like it will be no different.
SNP strategists may now privately admit that the 20-seat target is beyond them but they will not contemplate emerging from the election with fewer seats than they have now. That really would be a setback.
But, privately, they know they face a fight to hold on to Perth and North Perthshire and Angus from the Tories and Glasgow East from Labour.
All politicians will tell you that ‘the only poll that matters is on polling day’ but, really, they study the polls more closely than anyone.
This one, limited, sample in The Sun doesn’t mean the election result is cut and dried but it does give a useful indication of where things are at the moment and, right now, that is not terribly good news for the Nationalists.
Related posts:
“the sample size for Scotland was nearly 60…”
I wouldn’t class that as hugely authoritative. It’s error will be at least ±5%, which is reasonably significant. A large sample would have brought that down to about ±3%.
Regarding the SNP facing the Tories, Labour face considerably more problems, as they hold the majority of the Tory target seats in Scotland. Losing seats in their heartlands would be one hell of a kick in the teeth for Labour, not least if it goes to a hung parliament where every vote will be needed.
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Apologies for the mis-quote, that should, of course, have been 600, not 60.
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“Some critics have suggested that the base was only 189 for Scotland but the figures published today take in two YouGov polls, producing a combined sample of 572. While most proper polls would need a sample size of 1,000, this is a decent sample size – if not as large as perhaps analysts would like it to be.”
You cannot add figures from two different polls and present them as one poll!!
One reason is that there is no guarantee that the same people aren’t being counted again – if the polls were conducted by the same company then that is a possibility.
“It should also be remembered that YouGov has also proved itself a fairly reliable indicator of political fortunes”
Yes, but with accepted sample sizes and methodology”
“…so all those who would love to dismiss this as a ‘unionist newspaper plot’ or as a ‘misleadingly small sample’ should, perhaps, think again.”
I have thought again and the conclusion is the same – if not worse.
It is indeed misleading to present an aggregate figure from two polls as coming from one poll as your earlier article suggested before it was later amended to include the paragraphs I have quoted.
It is also disingenuous to suggest that people were calling your claims of a 600 sample size poll as a ‘unionist newspaper plot’. You have an article and a headline that is, shall we say, less than optimistic about the SNP’s chances in the forthcoming election and it turns out that there was no such poll with 600 respondents – indeed even the aggregate figure from two polls does not come to 600.
The article extrapolations are based on data that has now been acknowledged to have been inaccurately presented in the first instance as one poll and not two.
“While most proper polls would need a sample size of 1,000…”
No, ALL proper polls.
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Editor. Your readers demand a reasoned response to these criticisms of your article. Or will we have to believe it was all just c**p. Spit it out please!
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At the time of writing, only the GB poll details are available on the YouGov website, and there is no information at all on the web about the “Scottish” Sun poll other that the “leader” which provides no statistics at all.
A UKPR blogger reports the 2nd poll numbers as being Lab 37, SNP 21, Con 21, LD 15 taken from the “actual newspaper in Scotland”.
We will be able to comment on that data when/if it appears, but it is totally invalid to attempt to combine in it in any way with the under 200 sample from the GB poll because the weightings used by YouGov for GB-wide polls are completely different to those for Soctland only, PARTICULARLY in respect of Political “identification”.
If the numbers given come from two separate polls with different weightings, they are totally worthless statistically. The “Scotland” only poll may produce interesting results, but with very low confidence levels if the sample was less than 1,000 potential voters.
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It’s very hard to accept any kind of Tory bounce.
Have you ever met any folk who’ll admit to being Tories? They are rare beasts – tho’ perhaps not quite as endangered as a few years ago.
You are right about the negative press over the past couple of weeks.
It is unlikely to have a positive impact on the SNP’s fortunes.
As an eternal optimist, I look forward to the Cal Merc and the rest of our “meeja” getting stuck into the murky side of Labour – Old and New varieties – as seen in the SPT debacle.
Slainte Mhor
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I know of three people in Scotland who say they’ll vote Tory. Up from zero, that might indeed constitute a “bounce”. =)
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Well David Mundell would bounce a lot – might even fly with all the hot air he spouts though – the power to weight ratio makes that a scientific impossibility i think.
Wont it be nice to see David Mundell get defeated and the call me Dave PM having NO CONservative MP in Scotland
Maybe that is the only way the now irrelevant Scottish Office will vanish.
Interesting thought 20 SNP Mp’s at Westmonster NO CONservative MP in Scotland and with a CONservative ‘government’ in Westmonster with NO Mandate in Scotland MMMMM interesting times!!!!
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“But Caledonian Mercury understands that the sample size for Scotland was nearly 600, which gives it a reasonably authoritative base.”
No, it is not even close to providing a “reasonably authoritative base”, such a ridiculous claim is laughable.
The Cally has the opportunity to put clear blue water between itself and the rest of the Scottish MSM, however by producing articles like this based on figures that are just over half the commonly accepted figure for authoratative polls then it places itself firmly amongst the herd.
Polls have been used by the Scottish media for years in order to try to persuade Scots that there is ‘no demand’ for independence. The Herald ran a notorious poll prior to the 2007 Holyrood election that showed a significant Labour lead, the same paper ran not one but TWO polls aparently showing Labour with a double digit lead prior to the Glasgow North by-election – the SNP’s John Mason won.
When the Scottish media start to headline polls like this then I suggest that everyone treat them with a huge pinch of salt.
Indeed every election sees these same ‘polls’ wheeled out.
Come on Cally – a good start is being spoiled.
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All polls have to be taken in context as even the best run ones have a margin of error of +-3%, usually this requires a sample of between 1500 and 2000.
However this poll as it relates to Scotland has a sample size of 189, data is available from the yougov site at http://tinyurl.com/yhylo32.
As most of the writers article is based on his belief that the sample is at least 600, it is safe to say that most of the conclusions reached are also suspect, to say the least.
This subset is very common in UK wide polls and does not reflect the position in Scotland. Regrettably Scottish polls are fairly rare, the few that have happened tend to show Labour down from their 2005 level, the SNP up, LibDems down and the Tories remaining much the same.
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If the 189 figure is correct [and the link certainly does show that figure] – then where did Mr Macdonell get the figure of 600 from?
This renders the ‘Scottish poll’ completely and utterly meaningless and is just a tad embarrassing for The Cally.
This is what can happen in Scotland though, this nonsense will be headlined by the others (Record?, Scotsman?) and the evidence provided by Soosider won’t be as visible as it is here.
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Well Hamish is becoming an embarrassment i was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt ( away on holiday ) with his silence over the SPT Expensegate but if he can write this garbage using a smaller sample than you would get in my local ADSA at midnight that puts him in the same league as the climate scientists – HERE is THE ANSWER now where is the data to support our biased assumptions/views. Come on CM you can do better than this this is the sort of rubbish that you can read day in day out in the Hootsman and Herald.
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If you are correct Soosider, then I hope that the Editor of the Cal Merc summons wee Hamish to his ‘virtual’ office – and gives him a virtual doing!
It’s so easy for shoddy journalists to present data in an “impartial” way like the above – when they could just as easily get Llllord Ggggeorge Ffffoulkes to write their scripts.
Slainte Mhor
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Actually that is not true. The poll with the 189 sample actually had these figures: Labour 45; Conservative 23; SNP 20; Libdem 8.
http://www.yougov.co.uk/extranets/ygarchives/content/pdf/TheSun-results-17.02.pdf
The one Cally quotes I cant find the figures for, but I gather the sample size was 572 and the figures were: Labour 37; Conservative 21; SNP 21; Libdem 15.
Oops.
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The reason you cannot find the figures is that the Scottish Sun took the Scottish subset of the UK one then added subsets from 2 previously unpublished polls, then aggregated them together to produce these numbers, do not expect this to ever be published as it is practice that I would hope that YouGov would have nothing to do with.
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That’s as may be. In any case, to say the figures Cally quoted are from the 189 sample is plain wrong.
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This, if true, it is very depressing. It looks like the media campaign has done its job.
How can a party that have completely destroyed an economy be supported by 37% of the population? Incredible. Where else but Scotland.
The future for us here in Scotland is indeed bleak. Its back to 1979 I am afraid. God only knows what will be left of the country in five years time.
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Regarding the resurgence of the Tories, there are two factors at play. Obviously the electorate is rallying round the party that has the best chance of ousting the government – the SNP benefitted from this phenomenon in 2007 as much as it harms them now.
The other factor is that the Tories in the Scottish Parliament have actually shown themselves to be competent; working with the SNP government (and not opposing for opposition’s sake) to ensure the stability of the parliament, while also achieving concessions that go in their favour. It may be an indicator of how a Tory government in Westminster would behave with regard to the Scottish Parliament.
Of course, first-past-the-post introduces a huge random factor into the mix. In many (most?) constituencies a vote for anybody but the two leading candidates is a wasted vote.
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Topher
Sorry but I think this is largely wishful thinking on your part, the few Scottish polls that there have been have indicated that the Tory vote is much the same level as in 2005, they may take 1 perhaps 2 extra seats in Scotland. However the weakness of almost all polls is that they assume a uniform swing across all constituency, involving only 2 parties, in Scotland we have many constituencies that are three way or even four way fights. It maybe a bit early to go counting your chickens.
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Hamish and the Editor you need to correct your article regarding the sample size. Cleary someone( a Tory I would suggest) has spun you a yarn regarding the sample size. Do you not have a duty to verify these figures before stating them? I think so.
Given the importance to this article of your claim (even though 600 would be too small), you have clearly overstated the significance of this poll, as there would be a huge marin of error on those vote shares.
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This is just the usual political nonsense from the usual suspects.
This says more about the Cally than anything else.
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Still nothing about mcconnell’s interference, on behalf of the assailants, in an assault on a NHS nurse. Nor anything on broon’s letter defending a cannabis grower. Even more unusual nothing on labour cooncillors free jaunts to see Rangers at SPT expense.How very glencampblly.
Just the usual pro-labour mince. Are you being leaned-on ?
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Labour councillors going to see Rangers? Most Labour councillors (in Glasgow at least) are Celtic season ticket holders.
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In light of some of the other comments, could Hamish please add a link to the detail of this poll? He is making some sweeping generalisations and there seems to be little justification for them other than, what may turn out to be, an under powered poll (and perhaps his own hopes for the election).
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Sorry, but sad though it is, I hold out little hope for Caledonian Mercury’s political reporting. Hamish when he was with the Scotsman was always heavily biased towards Labour, and that seems to have carried over to the CM.
Hamish’s comment “….this Westminster election is a battle for the government of the UK and there are only two parties involved in that fight.” could be taken straight from Murphy’s anti-SNP playbook.
More importantly his comments on the poll are inappropriate, as it is wholly unclear what the statistical validity of the Sun poll actually is.
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Has anyone else noticed that when the SNP do well in the polls it never gets any media attention?
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Someone said that polls are not intended to measure opinion but to lead it – I think there is a lot of truth in that. People are influenced by what they think other people think; it’s probably a product of the survival instinct, of wanting to be part of the tribe. I have come to the conclusion that many polls are in fact heavily rigged to try to boost the unionist vote. The unionists are a bunch of devious double-dealing shysters – we know that from recent history and recently released documents – and clearly they are very worried.
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“Someone said that polls are not intended to measure opinion but to lead it”
Quite.
I personally think that opinion polls should be banned as undemocratic. They can only encourage a bipartisan system and the UK as a whole is already almost there, hence the continual decrease in the policy gap between Labour and the Tories.
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The combined forces of the dark side of the ‘Save the Union’ campaign have been weaving their corrosive black media arts to good effect.Time for the SNP to go on the offensive; unfortunately you can shout as hard as you like in the middle of the dense forest of antagonism, and no-one will hear. The only party I have seen sight or sound of locally, has been the SNP; the others, like the proverbial snow off the proverbial dyke, disappear between elections,safe in the knowledge that their friends in the media will do their negative campaigning work for them.
So sad; so unfair; so predictable. It makes emigration a tempting option!
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Well perhaps if the media perpretated a negative campaign against the Union parties, the SNP would be at the top of the polls.
It’s a pretty basic premise to follow. Smear something long enough, people will believe it.
The stats lie squarely at the feet of the media, not the voting public.
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I’m losing faith in this “newspaper” now.
Surely they have noticed that the SPT story is growing legs?
That a Double-dip Recession is looming, and that the UK is in a worse position than Greece!?
Where is Stewart now to explain why SPT resignations are NOT a story?
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You know what they say, there’s no news like good news.
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I am astonished that the figures quoted by the writer and who insists that this is not a small sample stating: “so all those who would love to dismiss this…’misleadingly small sample’ should think again’
Except (thanks to Soosider) its jles than 200. Which can be easily verifed directly on the site. It is not even that the data was not available for the article – it is and was prior to publishing it.
Also it is the current headline.
Shockingly poor research and sloppy reporting at best. How can such a seasoned reporter make such a basic error unless it is meant to mislead? Really, please explain? It puts into question the motivations of the reporter and the paper.
Note to editor: Please verify some basics next time…
Meanwhile: Time for a rewrite. If not, this is clear evidence of Editorial slant.
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It’s certainly good evidence that Mr Macdonell cannot have read the NUJ code, let alone followed it.
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It is funny but the Scotsman in “The Steamy” section also claim that the sample is about 600. Is Calmerc getting its storys from The Steamy or vis versa.
Both “newspapers” cut from the same cloth I think.
http://www.scotsman.com/CustomPages/CustomPage.aspx?PageID=75668
If you go to the UGov actual poll the Scottish sample size is 189.
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Hamish, having just had a look at the Yougov poll on their web site I don’t know where you got the figure of 600(the Sun maybe), but the numbers polled were only 189 in Scotland. It seems clear to me and I am sure many people that you cannot possibly tell the outcome of an election on such a small sample.
By the way have I missed the SPT story in this newspaper ? It is a real story, not like some of the stories I have been reading in the press the past few weeks or so.
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If you were to think about the SNP’s poor performers, and as you see there has been quite a few of late, you don’t have to know people turn away from poor performers to know this is why the polls are showing the figures they are of late.
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Dear Suffer unto My Apocalypse,
It must be an absolute pain to be attempting to make a case for supporting Labour out there in in East Lothian where the SNP have taken total control of the council.
These elections whenever they decide they are going to hold it will not be good for Labour in your East Lothian whoever Labour diktat decides will be the PPC. We (the public have waited four long years for Broony to call it and even less SNP seats will still signify a massive increase in popularity.
Still, be assured, I feel your pain, meanwhile;
http://news.scotsman.com/scotland/Salmond-wants-Westminster-to-39dance.4001458.jp
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spt story – nothing to see, now move along.
GG&C Health board story even less to see, now please move along.
There is something that both these story’s have in common but I just can’t put my finger on it ! I wonder what it might be?
apart from Kenneth Roy (over on the Scottish Review) does none of our home grown journalist’s ever do investigating these days?
or do they just wait on Labour press releases?
Sid
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Non of the totals for the Scottish figures tally with the article, so perhaps this is a different poll being reported on and YouGov haven’t published the results yet??? Certainly looks like he’s talking about a different poll.
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Nope the article refers to “a new poll published in The Sun today” the data for this poll is available at yougov, that’s the one with a sample size in Scotland of 189. But your point is well made none of the figures tally with this article.
So either the article is wrong about it being published in todays Sun or the numbers referred to are.
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Old habits die hard people. Give them a chance.
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Snowthistle
If it is a different poll why not quote which poll it was from.
Any poll of under 1000 people polled is statistically inaccurate.
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Telegraph is also running with this poll data, interesting it refers to a new agreement between the Sun and Yougov to run daily polls in the run up to the election.
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Folks on other blogs seem to think that two polls were conducted separately and the results of the Scottish one have not been put up on YouGovs website yet.
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No they have their numbers wrong this is the very latest poll and is referred to here:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/
Applying the headline results to the SNP or LDs is very dubious the whole thrust of the other questions try to square this into a purely Labour/Tory perspective.
eg.
“For better or worse, only two of the political parties — the
Conservatives and Labour — have any real chance of
forming a Government after this election. Irrespective of
how you intend to vote (or have already voted by post),
which of the following statements do you think apply
more to the Conservative Party and which apply more to
the Labour Party?”
If this isnt asking the reponders to frame their answers to a Labour/Tory only context then I don’t know what is. In any case the whole framing of the exercise is oriented towards the South UK.
Sure its not good news for the SNP, its not even meaningful to interoperate at all, except perhaps that labour are losing more ground to the Tories. Is that bad news for the SNP?
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Caladonian Mercury Editor please do a better job next time and read the You Gov website the amount of Scottish voters in the poll didnt add up to any where near 600.
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Dubbieside,
I’m not defending them just trying to explain the discrepancy.
As well as being wary about sample size, I would also like to know what the questions were and in what order they were asked.
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Snowthistle
Thank you for the reply.
I am curious about another poll. Usually newspapers commission one poll and then quote from the regional sub sample in that poll. I think if the Sun had commissioned a slightly larger poll for Scotland they would have had it in todays Scottish Sun. Why give The Calmerc and The Steamy an exclusive?
If it is another poll we should get a link to it soon.
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When the Labour vote in England and Wales collapses, which it will, and the Labour vote in Scotland holds up, which seems likely, this will be the most embarrassing day in modern Scottish history.
One has to wonder what it would take for at least some of these 37% of people to stop voting Labour.
They’ve been dragged into a scandalous war, dragged into a scandalous recession, watched their financial institutions crumble under highly controversial circumstances, seen corruption among politicians on an unprecedented scale (both on a local and national level).
They (still) have the worst stats for poverty and ill-health in western europe, and now they must watch as their unemployment figures become the worst in the UK and Europe alike, and still, after all that, they vote for Labour.
There is something wrong with our country. Scotland isn’t working.
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“according to a new poll published in The Sun today”
That sentence alone fills me with doubts. From what other commentators have said about the correctness of the sample size, it’s looking a bit like this story was written using The Sun as the source, rather than taking the time to look at the poll directly. Newspapers getting info from newspapers leads, of course, to one big game of Chinese Whispers, as each one lays on its own little bit of opinion, which is then interpreted in the next newspaper as fact, rather than hearsay.
If this is indeed what has happened, then I’m afraid the Caledonian Mercury will be losing readership very swiftly. While no one is suggesting the paper should have a particular bias towards any party or political viewpoint in order to strike a balance against the overtly pro-union/pro-Labour agenda in the rest of the MSM, the whole premise of this new paper was surely to get back to proper investigative and in-depth journalism, rather than the “churnalism” utilised by others. This article has all the hallmarks of a reworded press release.
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I don’t want the tories to get in!
I’m confused, does this poll mean voting SNP is a wasted vote?
Should I vote Labour to keep the tories out?
Oh no! what came over me?
I know I’ll just ignore this dross, wait till election day, get the ‘full sample’ and look forward to trying for 20 seats!
Polls. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
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Come on CalMerc time you cleared this up. If there is an explanation do please share it with us.
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This appears to be a shocking case of MIS-reporting.
I won’t bother to report that in this day people are quite capable of looking at information ourselves. We aren’t wee birdies opening our beaks to be force fed anything reports want to stuff down our gullets. I just had a look. This needs to be justified.
The editor needs to do something about this piece–and I suggest doing so immediately. A reputation is a fragile thing and after the spate of anti-SNP reports recently, incorrectly reporting a poll could be a final blow to the Caledonia Mercury’s reputation for fairness.
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Dearie me,
I was thinking this paper was going to be objective. Is this the same Hamish McDonnell who propagandises in The Scotsman? Who owns this place? Was this paper set up to prevent someone else moving in to the void left by Scotland’s MSM papergandists?
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With news that TWO more members of staff have resigned at SPT, I had expected to see an update (what am I saying? how can you update a story that has never been printed?) from this newspaper.
After all, we had an update within the hour when Ms Sturgeon announced her intention to make a statement to the Scottish Parliament. I’m sure I’m not wrong about that?
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No coverage for the real story in Scotland and misreporting on polling results.
~sigh~ I really did have hopes for this publication. Too bad. SERIOUSLY. Scotland needs a real newspaper.
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I too had hopes that the Caledonian Mercury would present a ‘better’ class of reporting than the print media. Alas, the content over the last few weeks has been demeaned by the sloppy reporting of one journalist. Purely my personal opinion but one which, going by the reader’s comments, appears to be shared by others.
Holding an opinion is one thing, we all have them, even journalists BUT, is it too much to ask that a professional checks their facts and figures before presenting them in an accurate manner ?
‘Caledonian Mercury understands that the sample size for Scotland was nearly 600′
‘critics have suggested that the base was only 189 for Scotland’
‘most proper polls would need a sample size of 1,000′
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Yes. I had hopes too…After being shocked rigid by the SNP win in 2007 the anti-snp propaganda has been relentless, and effective. It is such a sad sad wee country.
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“Some critics have suggested that the base was only 189 for Scotland but the figures published today take in two YouGov polls, producing a combined sample of 572.”
No. They haven’t SUGGESTED it. They have come right out and SAID it. For a reporter Mr. Macdonell is careless with language.
As for just adding two separate polls together you can’t really do that. How do you know, for example, that the same people weren’t on both polls. That is simply not a valid polling technique.
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Cue tumbleweed
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Stewart we definitely need to you to clarify this story and if there are any mistakes have them rectified which in itself would show the CalMerc to be a different paper. Also would be good to confirm that the CalMerc will give all polls equal exposure unlike the tame Unionist controlled press such as the Scotsman who will frequently headline polls which do not favour the SNP whilst conspicuously ‘missing’ or hiding deep from the head lines any pro-SNP articles. As another reader stated it is more than credible that the purpose of these polls (especially from a paper like the Sun) is not to report but to influence the end result. Perhaps a well researched article on the Unionist bias in the so called Mainstream Scottish media would worth consideration ?
There is a good related article in the respected politicalbetting site :
“Without much fanfare or advance warning the YouGov Daily Tracker for the Sun was launched overnight”
“The initial plan is for the Sun to run this on four days each week, Tuesday to Friday, rising to a seven day a week poll once the election proper has started.”
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/02/18/welcome-to-the-yougovsun-daily-tracker/
It also makes it clear that this daily poll is targeted at tracking the British election not Scottish and funnily enough they also link to the data set which mentions a sample of 189. Perhaps one other suggestion to make the CalMerc stand out is that when they report polls they provide a link to the results to avoid some guessing game. Having a journalist like Hamish do daily reports on tiny sub samples from the Unionist ‘Scottish’ Sun will quickly destroy the reputation that the CalMerc is establishing. You mentioned Stewart that you read all the comments and you frequently comment on them yourself, but at this point your conspicuous absence is becoming embarrassing, time to set the record state.
Interesting as well to note that this Scottish paper misses the outrageous democratic deficit that even if the Tories are on 21% England will impose yet again an alien right wing government against the overwhelming will of the Scottish people 79% !! Now that is the real story from a Scottish perspective and my assumption is that the main difference of the CalMerc is that it is coming from a Scottish perspective rather than another tame lapdog which sees all via a British perspective.
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Its interesting that it is almost 4 hours since Soosider linked to the Yougov poll and pointed out that the Scottish sub sample was 189.
There has been nothing from Calmerc with a link to the poll with almost 600 people polled.
The article was headlined “SNP 20-seat target is starting to look out of reach” maybe its the Calmerc credibility that is starting to look out of reach.
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You may believe that an aggregate of two small subsamples gives a ” useful indication of where things are at the moment”. I would have to disagree. Such an aggregate doesn’t tell you anything very useful and it was disingenuous of you to try to pass it off as one sample.
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It would also be useful if you could point us in the direction of the other poll which was used to form the “nearly 600″. Not suggesting there was any cherry-picking involved but we sceptics like to check just to be on the safe side.
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Yep very interesting technique picking a couple of different and statistically insignificant polls (one 189 and one presumably 383 with no links) and trying to massage them into a new Hamish poll. So 189 is clearly statistically irrelevant and so is a supposedly second poll of 383 (seem people perhaps ?) of 383. How any Journalist can work out that Significantly Insignificant + Significantly Insignificant magically = Significant stretches credibility too far. The more you look at this band aid approach the more laughable it is. I wonder if the Unionist press is watching whether Hamish gets away with this, then they could use this technique to bottom surf for the worst polls and add them together to make them even worse
No doubt next time we will see some rabid hybrid poll pieced together from sample polls sponsored by the Sun, the Tory party and Labour.
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Oops slight typo – “383 (seem people perhaps ?) ”
should be “383 (same people perhaps ?) “. Nothing like giving the Brit Nats some double counting , kind of like Labour’s 40% rule from 1979 all over again where the don’t knows and dead on the registers were counted as pro-Brit Nat. All smacks of another example of ‘Democracy’ British Style.
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Good lord, even BBC is doing better than this. Here:
http://ow.ly/16BJJ4
Although if it were SNP politicians I’m pretty sure it wouldn’t be described as a “resignation row”. How about actually covering some news, Mr. Macdonell. Mr. Kirkpatrick, have you gone into hiding?
And if there is another UK-wide poll with 400 people polled in Scotland (as exceedingly unlikely as that is) how about linking to it. Mr. MacDonell wouldn’t report this without having SEEN it, right?
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Come on CalMarc my comment from over an hour ago is still ‘ awaiting moderation. ‘ , why so slow ?
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These numbers first appeared on the Political Betting site last night.
“The Scottish paper says that the Scotland findings are
Lab – 37
SNP – 21
Con – 21
LD – 15
by David Roe February 17th, 2010 at 11:22 pm”
David Roe is the online sub-editor of the Scottish Sun.
Maddox came up with a poll size of 562 – the Sun didn’t.
The total of the last 3 YouGov Scottish samples was 546.
Anyone insane enough to try to combine these would produce figures of Lab 40% : SNP 23% : Con 21% : LD 11%. It is entirely possible that the Sun selected an earlier Scottish sub sample instead, in order to produce the quoted numbers.
I would have hoped that journalists commenting on polls would at least have the basic understanding that size isn’t everything. Much more important is the need for the sample to represent the demographics of the whole population.
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Just come out and say it, Oldnat. You can’t add together subsamples and pretend that they are meaningful. Well you can PRETEND, but that is what you are doing.
NO responsible polling organization would do so and any journalist who does this has shown their true colors.
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I thought my using the word “insane” was a give-away!
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It did sort of imply that, I must admit.
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Looking at oldnat’s comment it seems that the press in Scotland are at sixes and sevens (or 13’s if your Hamish) over the real figures.
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Stewart, I think, by now, most of your readership will have noted your continuing and conspicuous silence.
Have you been kidnapped ?
Has Mossad faked your passport ?
Your publication`s integrity hangs in the balance here so haven`t we waited long enough for a response to the points made and questions asked above ?
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I think the real question here is,
Did Maddox phone Macdonell? or did Macdonell phone Maddox with the almost 600 number?
Is this just The Scotsman without the dead tree bit?
Did we think we were going to get better than this?
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It is nigh on six hours ago that the readers of this report began to call for the Editor to step in and give us the facts on which this story by reporter Hamish Macdonell was written.
The readers are unhappy. When that happens they stop reading, and that is bad news for the medium concerned. It would be sad to see the Cally going the way of the Herald, so Stewart I am joining those above for you to do something to restore the reputation of the Cally.
It is hard to gain a customer but it can be done. What is certain is that a customer lost is a customer lost for good.
If you have a reason for not responding pretty soon it had better be a good one.
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The Editor is away on a well earned short break so it is not suprising that he hasn’t commented.
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Can’t get to a laptop eh? Well, considering the quality of this reporting, I don’t blame him for going out of town.
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Quote from Prof. Curtice – hardly the SNP’s best friend – in the Thunderer today:
“Even the 562 figure was only obtained by adding extra Scottish respondents from earlier unpublished polls to the respondents who formed part of YouGov’s latest UK-wide poll.”
Remember, he’s actually seen the data and doesn’t believe it. Until YouGov publish the details – which they’re bound to do within 48 hrs – we can only conclude that this report is the “mince” it seems to be.
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Worse, this seems to be bad practice from YouGov themselves. Coincident that they do this just as they sign an exclusive contract with News International?
That would be a story for any of Stewart’s team who understand numbers.
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You’re kidding. That mince actually came from Yougov and not from The Sun? They don’t care much for their reputation then, because that is NOT acceptable polling.
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“That would be a story for any of Stewart’s team who understand numbers”
Do you think it at all likely that they have one?
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Well, to be honest, I for one am not too surprised since I had one of my posts on the Nicola Sturgeon story moderated out last week. Im afraid Cal Merc’s early promise has faded and this badly researched story proves it.
About a year ago BBC Alba showed an excellent documentary “Diomhair” (Secret) produced and researched by George Rosie. See the whole film here http://www.scottishindependenceconvention.org/ResouceMain.asp
It reveals how in the past Labour and Conservative governments shared a common agenda – stopping Home Rulers and Scottish Nationalists from breaking up Britain and making Scotland independent. How both parties resorted to spying and underhand tactics to discredit the SNP, its members and supporters. How official documents proving the viability of independence were kept hidden and how politicians and civil servants tried to obstruct independence and keep Britain united.
The programme revealed how, in the past, civil servants, MI5 and Special Branch were used by Westminster to obstruct and even sabotage the Scottish Nationalist movement and how successive governments used and abused their power to keep Scotland in the union and sabotage the causes of devolution and independence. Such revelations, you would think, would have been the subject of huge interest to our Scottish media. Not then, and not now Im afraid, and Macdonell’s dodgy Sun dossier continues the sad story of a compliant Scottish media.
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AH the fog begins to clear, what this article seems to be reporting on is a made up poll for the Scottish SUN, seems they have taken the UK subset from the YouGov poll and added other subsets to get then a set of about 570. As any sort of indicator of polling intent this is absolutely mince. You can not aggregate data in this manner, at least not if you expect to have any meaningful data.
This is just poor poor work, appalling practice, producing meaningless statistics. I am disappointed that this paper has not done a better job of this, I mean surely there was as good a story in revealing the shocking use of polling data, a critic of this method would have been a good story, perhaps getting quotes from knowledgeable people in the field of polling. The story would have been topical, innovative, interesting and most definitely newsworthy.
An opportunity lost for this publication, shame really as it had started so well.
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Soosider
Maybe we should not be surprised that The Sun would want to manipulate figures in this way, and that Maddox at The Scotsman would blindly follow them.
What is maybe surprising however is that Calmerc should also report them verbatim with no investigation, no link to the actual poll, just this is a good chance to have a go at the SNP.
What is clear however is that all the media smear storys are obviously not having the desired effect on the SNP, so it is back to the dodgy poll scenario. Remember when John Mason won in Glasgow the polls showed him 17% behind Labour.
What is equally clear is that any hopes that we had that the Calmerc would be neutral and report facts rather than opinions was naive or maybe optimistic.
What was that saying about wild animals and changing their coats?
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The $64,000 question is whether ALL of these myriad sub-samples are weighted on YouGov’s Scottish political id?
If so, there may be the tiniest smidgeon of evidence that things are static. If not, there’s unsupported evidence of the SNP’s advance, Con stasis and Lab decline.
Remember that everyone identifying as “Other” (inc SNP) is weighted down to 3% in GB polls compared to 16% in Scottish polls, so the SNP numbers could be understated by 80%. Likewise “Con” identifiers are weighted to 26% for GB vs 11% for Scotland, making them overstated by up to 150%.
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The Scottish Sun said previously that Labour was winning and SNP was down. They seemingly made the whole thing up. Daily Record printed the same. How could two do that now? This was it here.
–
The Sun, Thu 3rd Dec 2009
- “a poll showed voters are backing Labour over the SNP at Westminster AND Holyrood. The Ipsos Mori survey…
….figures for Westminster show Labour has 36 per cent support and the SNP 32 per cent.
In Holyrood Labour lead with 28 per cent support, compared to 27 per cent for the SNP”
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/2756338/Votes-blow-for-the-SNP-Alex-Salmond.html
–
Ipsos Mori, Sun 29th Nov 2009
- “Labour has made up some ground from its poor showing… but the SNP maintains a strong position in terms of support for both Scottish and Westminster elections.
SNP 34 per cent, Labour 32 per cent (Voting intention Westminster)
SNP 36 per cent, Labour 32 per cent (Voting intention Holyrood)”
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2523
–
If it was right enough, then should of had a press complaint for Pyongyang style journalism. Something wasn’t quite right. Whatever way, the SNP figures from Ipsos Mori were seemingly never reported anywhere.
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I believe the ipsos mori poll you referred to was the last Scottish poll carried out, it is also interesting as they carried out a similar poll in Aug 2009 that showed similar trends. It is only where there are regular polls , usually by the same pollster, that trends can begin to be seen.
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I’m very disappointed. This “newspaper” was like a breath of fresh air around the stagnant pool that forms the MSM; I hope that there can be a recovery.
I’m guessing that it is difficult to resist the pressure from the Unionist droves, just take a look at how badly those MPs who were supposed to represent our interests have behaved. With corruption at it’s very core the Union will not easily relinquish it’s hold on Scotland.
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Puerseil at 8 o’clock today says, “The Editor is away on a well earned short break so it is not suprising that he hasn’t commented.”
Seems when the Editor is away, Hamish makes hay, and we are all munching it. This “poll” is worthless as most of you have pointed out.
When the Editor returns (refreshed I hope) a wee word in Hamish’s ear, followed by a slap would seem in order.
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<a href="http://subrosa-blonde.blogspot.com/2010/02/corruption-within-labour-ranks.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+blogspot%2FbUee+%28SUBROSA%29"Corruption within Labour Ranks
Media, where art thou?
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Blech no a href.
The link is:
http://subrosa-blonde.blogspot.com/
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Opinion Polls are snapshots in time from people who might not necessarly vote at an election. The media, or rather the slant the media puts on a story, tends to opinionate people who only read headlines. In the recent ’spate’ of anti-SNP stories, the contribution of that party’s spokesperson to the article is usually left to the last line!
For instance, the Daily Wail ran a story earlier this week about the huge burden the PFI/PPP has placed on the Scottish taxpayer and yet, at least half of the article was devoted to Andy Kerr slagging off the SNP’s Scottish Futures Trust. Balanced reporting? I think not, but I would expect nothing else from such a disreputable Middle-England rag wearing a mini-kilt! The Mercury must do better than mimic that fish-supper wrapper.
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“Sigh”.
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I’m pretty distrustful of YouGive polls altogether. They seem to show a hefty lean towards both Labour and Tory, with the lean being more pronounced for whichever party is polling highest in England at the time, in their Scottish “results”.
One poll in particular comes to ind where in a poll-size of sub-750, 230+ were identified as Labour members…
Not exactly a fair representation that, is it? They’d used the metric for England as OK for Scotland, despite massively different population sizes. Likewise, when they weight the SNP, there are of course no SNP members in England…
Very bad polling. If the news were bad for the SNP, I’d like to know, but I’d like to know accurately.
I think as a result of the total fabricated crap in the papers in recent weeks, the SNP probably have gone down a point or two, but people aren’t stupid. A friends parents were talking about the election to ma pal, and he was explaining his support of the SNP. They’re not yet convinced, but the did mention how suspicious they found it that there are never any pro-SNP stories in the papers, ever, yet Labour get a free ride when their MP’s are getting arrested for fraud etc.
So I say keep it up Daily Herald. Keep it up The Record. Watch your numbers fall and the SNP’s rise as more and more people stop believing your copy&paste Labour press releases and start questioning everything a bit more…
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Just testing to see if my Hamish comments are still censored.
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Who’s getting my vote at the next election?
I’m not sure because I’m getting a wee bit confused. Sometimes I believe the elite are deliberately doing their best to destroy what democracy we had. Ok this is our pick, the SNP: the international nationalist’s. Labour the anti working class party extraordinaire. SSP the Marxist international idiots. Tommy the Tubes internationalist Islamic asylum seekers socialist front. On the other hand, maybe the BNP the born again Nazi party 2010 style. The Tory Liberal and Green Party well lets call them fringe parties and a wasted vote.
Oh the joys of freedom and democracy.
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The SNP vote and number of MPs will probably both fall in the general election. People know that at Westminster the SNP is largely irrelevant.
What will be more interesting is whether the SNP take responsibility for whatever the Westminster result then gives them. If it is the Tories and a lower Barnett block grant, or the Labour party and a lower block grant, or a hung parliament and a lower block grant, they all point to very difficult times ahead.
One wonders what the SNP are going to do about future sustainable economic growth, when the growth in Scotland in the last 10 years has been un-sustainable public sector employment levels and wages.
Scotland’s economy is likely to go into free-fall later this year…..
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The only real economic lever the SNP have is over small business rates. This they have lowered with the backing of the parliament to get it through the budget. Thats the interesting effect of minority goverment budgets – collective responsibility.
I think you are right about free-fall, though not about when – Unless you think +10000 unemployed isn’t free-fall already?
I disagree on your position that the SNP are irrelevant in Westminster. I think people feel more and more disconnected from the Lab/Troy hegemony. Labour is already pushing the ‘Vote SNP, get Tory’ nonsense. It will work with some (you can fool some people all of the time) but the SNP will make inroads. That is sure. If the SNP were irrelevant why the concerted time from Cameron on the SNP recently as opposed to Labour? Did he spend the same time on Greenpeace?
Unionist Actions speak louder than unionist words.
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What!!! you think the SNP vote will fall? in 2005 it polled 17.6% of the popular vote, do you think it will poll less than that? At Holyrood it polled 32% of the popular vote, at the Euro Elections it polled 34%, do you seriously think that it will drop from this level of support to less than 17%.
Sorry but that is just wishful thinking on your part.
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alex wrote;
[People know that at Westminster the SNP is largely irrelevant.
That is only true if you buy into the idea that Westminster elections are basically presidential affairs with people voting for Brown or Cameron alone rather than the constituency candidates. That, I’m afraid, is nonsense.
It is true that most back benchers (including then majority of Labour and Tory ones) are basically lobby fodder and seat warmers at Westminster … but their election to the house is where the people get to influence the agenda of the Govt. In Scotland’s case, a drop in the SNP vote would see the gloves come off in London, regarding spending here, as the Govt no longer saw any reason to keep us sweet. A rise in the SNP vote would see a few sphincters twitch down there and we could expect to see Scotland given more consideration as the Govt act to ensure the revenue keeps flowing South.
If we want a presidential system as the Lab/Con “Old Firm would appear to favour then perhaps we should go the whole hog and have that. Have an election for PM, with the only names on the ballot being the Party leaders, and a completely separate election for MPs. Perhaps Mr Brown could have a referendum on it
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The could go into free-fall. And if you think that would help either the Tories or Labour, I would seriously question your analytical skills.
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I was an avid reader and contributor to both The Herald and The Scotsman for many years.
Eventually though I just gave up ,the reporting was so skewed towards Uninoist dogma and the free rein given to unionist posters was nauseating.
I was banned many times when either outing a Scotsman plant or “nailing” one of the unionist buffoons.
I never now even scan the headlines in either of these propoganda sheets.
I voted with my “custom.”
I was happy like many that this new publication was going t take a neutral stance in all matters.
This article has to say the least dampened my enthusiasm for accurate ,neutral reporting.
There is a lot of scepticism over the poll data and the silence from Stewart is deafening.
Scotland deserves better ,that is why today I feel such disaapointment at this shoddy article.
I am not yet at the stage of adding this site to the same dustbin as the aforementioned rags, however………………..
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Disillusioned is disillusioned from his comment above regarding the report fron Hamish, late of the Hootsmon. I think he is too early in considering abandoning the Cally. Disillusioned’s contributions have been balanced and welcome.
Regarding the silence from Stewart I was given the information that he is “on a short well deserved break” and that is the reason for the silence.
We should surely accept that.
I suspect Hamish would not be displeased to see the demise of the Cally as it is a positive force against the bias flowing from the Scottish press. Does he get some retainer from the Hootsmon I wonder?
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As mentioned earlier to another contributor, the Editor is away on a well deserved break.
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Let’s hope for his sake it’s not ‘gardening leave’!
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How very disappointing to see this publication sink so low so early in its life.
It is obviously difficult to employ a high calibre of journalist these days.
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Tell us what you’re thinking…
I think we are being deliberately misled!
You guys examining, investigating and correcting these fictional stories deserve the awards going to the journalists.
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Anyone who puts any faith in a poll which puts the Tories neck and neck with the SNP is heading for electoral disappointment.
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The SNP has been in a maelstrom of issues recently – some of their own making – but mostly as the result of the ordure throwers of the opposition.
And I have no doubt that the polls will be showing a drop in support for the SNP.
The story above takes that truth and in, classic style, elevates it to a level of electoral disaster for the party that is, at the moment, unfounded.
It’s good propaganda simply because it is based on an element of truth. But it’s crap journalism.
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Sketch Headline: Caledinian Mercury goal of balanced reporting is starting to look out of reach.
According to a new poll published in The Rain today it is not just overly ambitious, it is now actually slipping out of reach.
Today’s Britman poll put the Merc on 2 per cent circulation, in equal second place with the Hootsman. The Herald is well ahead on 3 percent.
But wait. This is no ordinary poll as this poster understands that around 600 online posters were at sometime asked about their preferred journal or maybe multiple times or maybe in different polls but it somehow comes to 600. The poll also showed that in this context its a 2 horse race between the Hootsman and Herald anyway and posting for the Mercury is a wasted post.
This one, limited, sample doesn’t mean the readership result is cut and dried but it does give a useful indication of where things are at the moment and, right now, that is not terribly good news for the Mercury.
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Brilliant!
It occurs to me that this unionist poll thingy could spectaculalry backfire, there may be those thinking ,” No to labour! No to Tory! No to LemDips! ”
And it may galvanise those who would otherwise not bother to vote, into voting – SNP of course!
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Haha! Excellent post. I laughed in spite of the sad nature of the underlying truth.
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Why do I have to read the Times, Scottish NEWS to get information on probably the most important and relevant issue to all of us in the UK????
“”"Gordon Brown’s launch of a Labour election campaign promising economic recovery was in jeopardy last night as a record slump in tax receipts fuelled fears that Britain could slip back into recession.
Official figures showed that the Treasury borrowed another £4.3 billion last month. It is the first time since records began in 1993 that the nation has been in the red in January, traditionally the month when government coffers are swelled by big tax receipts.
Economists, who had expected a surplus of about £2.8 billion, sounded renewed alarm, with some saying Britain’s deficit could exceed Greece’s. Kate Barker, of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, added to the gloom, warning the recovery would be “hesitant” and another quarter of negative growth was possible.”"”
Ot to read that James Purnell is to step down at the General Election.
Does the Political Commentator/Analyst on this newspaper ot have a press release from Labour HQ yet?
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£4.3 Billion in January. Does this mean that we have joined the Arc of Insolvency? Apparently UK annual debt now comes to the equivalent of £5k per person per year. I thought those things would only happen if we LEFT the Union.
Somehow, despite all this, 80% are still prepared to vote for another five years of growing debt, higher taxes, few job prospects, loss of culture, loss of identity, loss of dignity, loss of self esteem, loss of control of broadcast media, loss of economic control, WMD on its soil, involvement in wars of aggression.
I just find it irrational and incomprehensible.
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And why is this news not even reported here?
At present, Scotland is still part of the UK, and unfortunately we know that we will be amongst the first to suffer………………..history repeats itself.
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Oh dear Calmerc I am so disappointed in you. To have a new online newspaper which would produce balanced reporting was so refreshing, let us be honest we didn’t have one. Maybe it will have to be accepted that it could be a wee while before we do get anything near that.
It is so depressing, but I feel that there are a few Scottish newspapers which will have disappeared long before the press realise they have being doing something wrong.
The people can’t be fooled all the time, I think at long last they are wakening up to the fact that we have been conned for a long long time.
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Her is another story that would have been splashed all over every Scottish Front page if there was a political commentator capable of a wee bit of digging!!
“”Harriet Harman faces investigation after admitting £650,000 Labour awaydays were on the taxpayer.
Gaffe-prone Harriet Harman faces an investigation for admitting taxpayers paid for ministers to drum up votes on Cabinet awaydays.
Taxpayers have spent nearly £650,000 so far on such Cabinet meetings around the country.
The main trips outside London have taken place in seats that Labour is under threat of losing at the General Election. Her comments come as Gordon Brown today took his Cabinet on the road to a comprehensive school in the North-East today.”"”"
You can’t help wondering where it will all end? or if it ever will whilst the Labour Party in Scotland are under the protection of the MSM?
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sorry, freudian slip, should be details
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First of all I have to say that like many people I had high hopes for this virtual newspaper. Unfortunately with the likes of Hammish writing his new labour tosh it appears that my high hopes were short lived.
Now as to yougov….I received an email asking me if I would like to sign up. This I did and in the part that asked what political party would you favour I ticked SNP. No surprise that I have not heard another word from them. I am certain others will be in the same position.
In the ‘tall tale’ written by Hammish it is stated that the SNP will be hard pushed to hold onto Perth. At every election this same thing crops up yet the SNP keep holding onto Perth. As I live in Perth and even though I think Ms Cunningham is a crap MSP I can state that Labour has no chance. One simply never hears a good word for them and the Conservatives. The Libliars are well known round here and they ain’t in with a shout either.
Very disappointing and the editor should clean up this newspaper before it folds through lack of interests………which would be a great pity.
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yes,i’m not sure it’s enough to give a true reading of certency
either, however we will have to work harder at it, i know it
will please the torrys a break through at last,
cant say i’ve seen any signs on the doorsteps,
time will tell.
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Did anybody ever seriously believe the SNP would win 20 Westminster seats this year? Bearing in mind they need at least a 13% swing against Labour. Ain’t going to happen. The SNP should manage 8 seats – up to 10 if they’re lucky – 12 would be a miracle.
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YouGov have finally put the tables for this poll up on their website.
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RAB, WHERE ART THOU ???
The CalMerc editor has gone off on a long weekend.
Time for a coup ?
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Full YouGov details here.
Poll of 572 adults between 15-17th Feb.
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Ok so there was actually a Scottish poll, if one rather on the small side. Predicted voting intentions are still not the numbers reported in this article
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Correct and where are the two statistically insignificant polls which have been added to together to try and masquerade as something significant -
‘the figures published today take in two YouGov polls, producing a combined sample of 572.’.
Also interesting to note the actual results and the ‘weighted’ results
Actual results Con (110) Lab (151) SNP (125) LibDems(69) which means only 445 picked one of the main parties and their relative proportions are
Con 24%, SNP 27%, Labour 33%, Lib Dem 15%
So a difference of 6% in actual votes between Labour and SNP but with ‘weighting’
it becomes a 16% (21%/37%) difference – perhaps another form of Union dividend ?
Counting the actual votes was never the greatest of the strengths of this so called British Democracy.
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Oh Dear
“Farewell bright confident morn”
It would appear that Caledonian Mercury is just that old strumpet the Hootsman in a new dress.
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I have to agree.I was speaking to a journalist friend a few weeks ago and he said the mercury wouldn’t work due to the Scotsman influences.Having given it every chance I have to agree.
I knew it was bad when he said that even the Sunday Post would give a fairer view of the Scottish political scene.Its sad when it comes to that stage.
So I will look in now and again however as far as the political coverage goes I’ll go back to the blogs as in reality the coverage here is a new Labour blog.
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Would you not be better putting your political point and giving some balance to the discussion instead of just complaining about the content? There are many more contributors than there are journalists so we have the advantage.
If you think a journalist is writing tosh you are free to say so and why it is tosh.
Get stuck in and speak up.
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Strewth,
I go away for a few days…
Right.
First, @Donnel Mhor. What “Scotsman influences” exactly? None of us work for The Scotsman. We’re a small, independent group of journalists trying something new.
Second, Hamish made clear this was a Sun poll – not a Caledonian Mercury one. The figures in it are extraordinary: 21% for the Tories in Scotland? Surely that’s worth reporting, no?
Third, I apologise for delays in allowing comments. Also, I don’t censor comments but I do edit them if they are A) offensive or B) irrelevant. And for most readers intense debates about whether Hamish is fit to report stories are irrelevant.
Fourth, a quick look at my bank balance shows I’m not in the pay of any pro-Union conspiracy. Or pro-SNP one.
Finally, we will be launching a Caledonian Mercury online focus group this week. It won’t be an opinion poll because people who take part in online surveys are self-selecting groups. But it will aim to provide an unbiased view of the trends in Scotland in the run-up to the election. I’d ask you all to take part so we get a sample size larger than 600.
Thanks very much,
Stewart Kirkpatrick
Editor, The Caledonian Mercury
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Stewart
You’re doing great things with the Cally but do need to remember that much goodwill towards the project is because a balance and correction was needed in the bias – as you know – of Scottish newspaper reporting.
To have Hamish, with to some extent the baggage he brings, lead on low-number, slightly oddly-done and hard-to-defend poll from a newspaper that is well included in the list of key suspects… well, it is a bit disappointing.
I believe that the SNP vote – even among quite positive SNP supporters – may go to other parties in the Westminster election – primarily as the general thrust of all the other parties’ campaigns – and reporting of such – is that the SNP is ‘irrelevant’ in this election.
It would be more enlightening if the Cally were to try and make sure that this sort of negative angle – which is of course a ‘great lie’ – was not encouraged in its pages.
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Sorry, but you have had over 100 complaints of a pretty serious nature and this your reply?
You might be a small team, you may think you are engaged in a bit of an experiment but you have put yourselves out there and a lot of people’s hopes of a fairer and unbaised news outlet are resting on you. You may not want the responsibility but, whether you like it or not, you do have that burden.
Shape up!
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Please don’t give us the pro union conspiracy stuff Stewart as if to suggest this is all about a bunch of paranoid nats.
As others have said our expectations were raised,we thought we were going to get fairness ,its not happening.
I challenged you to cover the double standards of new Labour over the Nicola Sturgeon hysterics.It was an easy hit it would have provided some balance,it didn’t happen.
I’m not yet about to give up on you yet but its getting close.
What is clear is that there is a space in the market for web based journal that will not pander to the new Labour line,it may well yet prove to be the Mercury however at the moment I fear you are sliding into that media gutter where new Labour will feed you stories to your hearts content.
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Stewart,
The initially released results were undoubtedly worth reporting, but it took most of the time you were away for YouGov to publish the details of the “poll” of 562 Scots (weighted down to 557!) on which this article is based. Prof. Curtice commented on results released to him in more detail – including the 562 – in an article in the London Times the same day.
However, the YouGov details now available pose more questions than they answer including changes in weighting values compared to their previous Scottish poll in January and fieldwork dates which put in question the information supplied to Prof. Curtice. These are serious matters and should be treated seriously by any journalist reporting Scottish politics who wants credibility in the forthcoming UK general election.
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Mr. Macdonnell had the BRASS to state that a poll of 562 was as good as a poll of 1000 and that it did not matter that the poll was non-existent and was a cobbled together aggregate of polls.
Then he followed it up with that blatant attack article about a regulation on rabbits. (apparently nothing should be discussed by the government except the economy)
Now tell me again that you are providing balanced coverage.
I don’t know that ANYONE has said that anyone is currently in the pay of The Scotsman, but that doesn’t mean that one or more haven’t carried forward the BIAS IN REPORTING that they showed at that publication.
In fact, obviously this IS the case.
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‘Hamish made clear this was a Sun poll – not a Caledonian Mercury one’
Surely, strictly speaking, it was a YouGov poll. Unfortunately, Hamish appears to have simply repeated the Sun’s interpretation of the numbers rather than waiting until they were available to him for full scrutiny.
Apologies if it offends but, in my book, that’s sloppy journalism.
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Stewart
It is very refreshing when the editor responds to posters.
You are of course correct that a poll showing the Tories on the same level as the SNP, is indeed a story. However given that it is so extraordinary perhaps a more cautionary response would be merited, I appreciate that probably most reporters are not that up on statistical analysis, nor poll interpretation, but surely that would encourage someone to be cautious as to the conclusions reached on what is a poll that is noteworthy for being very different from the few Scottish polls that there are.
Given that we will probably have more polls from YouGov, courtesy of the ‘Scottish Sun’, perhaps we showed brush up on their basis and what can or cannot be drawn from their ‘data’
Look forward to you focus group
Soosider
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All credit to you Mr Kirkpatrick for replying. I don’t think folk mind the reporting of very dodgy polls per se. However you should acknowledge that they are a labour press release ( if it isn’t a labour press release – then who manufactured it ?).The silly rabbit story – again the same thing.
I AM HEARTILY SICK OF LABOUR BEING ABLE TO CONTROL ALL THE MEDIA IN SCOTLAND. Labour set the news agenda in every sphere and that is unacceptable and bad for democracy. These silly stories are there to fill up space and prevent any reporting and quoting of labour politicos on subjects they don’t want to talk about. Everyone is aware of the shelf life of a story.
Here are some of the stories not being reported or investigated :
mcconnell’s interference, on behalf of the assailants, in an assault on a NHS nurse. Nor anything on broon’s letter defending a cannabis grower. Even more unusual nothing on labour cooncillors free jaunts to see Rangers at SPT expense.And labour’s suggestion that a labour councillor should be appointed to “clean up ” SPT.
If you report these items ALONG with the two dodgy stories that you did report I doubt anyone would complain. People are obviously very annoyed that you think dodgy polls and the rabbit tosh are the most important poltical stories out there.
I accept you may find it difficult to report the truth regarding labour, if that is the case you should at the very,very least refrain from printing non-stories to take the heat away from the labour party.
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Remember These comments Stewart?
“We seek to revive Scottish journalism by using the internet rather than railing against it. The Caledonian Mercury stands for intelligent reporting, informed analysis and raising the standard of debate in Scottish life.
This newspaper is an experiment in the evolution of media. It is a statement of belief in a better public life. It does not fear the possibility of failure and instead relishes the prospect of change.
Most importantly, it holds dear the pledge of its antecedent: “To assert no falsehood and to hide no truth.”
Inspiring, hopeful words. Not true though, is it?
The question for all of us who looked forward to what you promised and have manifestly failed to deliver, is what do we do next?
What purpose do we serve by posting here? There is no intelligent debate all we do is take issue with the crude anti SNP tone. Do our comments on Hamish’s tacky Labour press releases actually provide the balance we seek? Or are we in fact just providing website hits to enable the latest British establishment mouth piece to sell advertising revenue?
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“…intelligent reporting, informed analysis…”
What? You mean that doesn’t mean just regurgitating Labour press releases?
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Extremely interesting that there are no posters trying to defend this article which would suggest that it is indefensible or that no rabid and fanatical unionists read the Mercury. This suggests that the paper is targetting the wrong readership.
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“Some critics have suggested that the base was only 189 for Scotland but the figures published today take in two YouGov polls, producing a combined sample of 572. While most proper polls would need a sample size of 1,000, this is a decent sample size – if not as large as perhaps analysts would like it to be.”
And with that statement, the authour shows a profound ignorance of statistics. It simply isn’t mathematically possible to combine two data sets in this manner and derive any meaningful result. Bluntly, this is mince.
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To Stewart Fitzpatrick: “Second, Hamish made clear this was a Sun poll – not a Caledonian Mercury one. The figures in it are extraordinary: 21% for the Tories in Scotland? Surely that’s worth reporting, no?”
No. For the simple reason that this poll is not mathematically valid. It is not possible to derive such a result from a flawed data model. To put it another way, what is the “p” value in this survey?
http://www.badscience.net
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Stewart,
If the figures were surely worth reporting then they were surely worth checking.
We did that quickly and easily on the net, Hamish could have done likewise.
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I’ve been reading the Caledonian Mercury for around five weeks now.
The reasoned, and generally reasonable, comments submitted by contributors makes a welcome change from the rabid exchanges which can be observed ‘elsewhere’.
I note Stewart’s, ‘We will be launching a Caledonian Mercury online focus group this week. It will aim to provide an unbiased view of the trends in Scotland in the run-up to the election. I’d ask you all to take part . . .’
I look forward to it.
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BT today at 7.23 posted;-
“What purpose do we serve by posting here? There is no intelligent debate all we do is take issue with the crude anti SNP tone. Do our comments on Hamish’s tacky Labour press releases actually provide the balance we seek?
These questions deserve repeating, and warrant some responses.
What does Mr Kirkpatrick think? I think he should reveal to us his opinion on BT’s last question.
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I would strenuously deny that there is an anti-SNP tone to this paper. Sure, some articles may report things that Nationalists may not like but we equally carry stories that are critical of the opposition parties.
“What purpose do we serve by posting here”? Unlike other papers, we take reader feedback very seriously. This does not mean that we will shy away from criticising the SNP (or any other party whose supporters post here) but we do listen.
Stewart Kirkpatrick
Editor, The Caledonian Mercury
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Stewart
I must have missed all these storys that are critical of the opposition partys, can you provide a link.
Jacks letter supporting people who threaten a nurse. Gordon Brown supporting a cannabis grower. Iain Grays big tent gate. MPs expenses scandal. MPs flipping houses. Why are all the Labour MPs not standing for re election.
The only part of that is even handed is Rabs where he is happy to lampoon all sides.
We thought that we would get even handed reporting, some hope.
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One improvement here I would suggest is to stick to statistically significant polls rather than glued together statistically insignificant polls.
If you want to stick with small polls here is one that Hamish missed from 17th Feb.
Only a sample size of 81, but shows
Conseratives 19%, Labour 21%, and SNP 26%.
http://www.comres.co.uk/page190146516.aspx
Additionally I recommend that the CalMerc stay true to reporting from a Scottish not a British perspective.
The fact that the Tories might gain a few percent to 21% or so is historically just normal
as part of the Westminster squeeze where Scottish only parties such as the SNP are dismissed as totally irrelevant by Labour and Conservatives , and this assertion of course is gleefully propagated by the ever obliging Mainstream Scottish media. This is just same old ‘Democracy’ British style. The real issue here is the prospect of the vast majority of the Scottish people being disenfranchised yet again by the imposition of another alien right wing Government imposed on Scotland by England. A focused article on how ‘democracy’ manifests itself from a Scottish perspective in this British Experiment would be a more than worthy angle for the CalMerc to pursue e.g.
. having an unelected house of nobility with minimal Scottish representation as compared to elected second houses in real modern democracies where states and cantons are equally represented yet a nation like Scotland is treated with contempt and has minimal representation with the current governing party of Scotland having zero representation.
. having a first past the post system where in Scotland Labour and the SNP can poll the same yet Labour with their deliberately engineered socialist ghettos and fiefdoms can still get 5 times as many MPs.
. Whenever England feels like lurching to the right Scotland is just dragged behind like a rag doll, as like happened during the Thatcher era here the Scottish nation was effectively raped for over a decade whilst ‘Scottish’ Labour stood impotently by.
. Why supposed Scottish political parties like Scottish Labour don’t even exist but are allowed by the Scottish media to perpetuate that myth. They are a London controlled party and there is no official Scottish Labour party as they are terrified of the democratic prospect of being driven by Scottish needs first and foremost rather than just blind obedience to London masters.
There are more than enough real stories that truly effect Scotland that truly merit the attention of outlets like the CalMerc. I look forward to you finding, researching and exposing these stories rather than just sad rip offs of tabloids like the Sun or articles spun to act as convenient transports of verbatim quotes from Labour mouth pieces.
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“Unlike other papers, we take reader feedback very seriously”.
As reluctant as I am to say it, Stewart, there doesn`t appear to be much evidence of that.
We expect you to be critical of the SNP when the issues justify it.
We also expect you to be equally critical of all those who deserve it, irrespective of which party is involved.
That hasn`t happened. On the “poll” itself, are you yourself absolutely certain that Hamish wasn`t just in a bit of a rush to get out an interpretation of these results which was negative for the SNP ?
On the “rabbit” story, why wasn`t the piss taken out of the other government departments across the UK who have had to do exactly the same thing ?
If you can`t put these articles in the context of the incessantly anti-SNP, or anti-independence media which drove us all here, then you`d better learn quick.
As others have pointed out, (only for you to ignore them in your reply),these articles have appeared at a time when there is no shortage of politically controversial stories concerning the Labour party, but all you can find time and space for are a statistically questionable poll and an extremely selective piece of partisan fluff which references a known Labour rent-a-gob. Are these really more relevant than SPT`s Labour appointees expenses, to use but one example ?
You would be a fool to ignore the potential impact of all this, Stewart, because, while I still wish you every success in this venture, that wish is now based more in my hope for balance and objectivity than it is in my faith that you will deliver it
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So – what about the SPT story and the Labour councillors? Seeing as you say “we equally carry stories that are critical of the opposition parties.?” I’ve been waiting for a few days now, as have others!
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Come on Stewart. You havent answered the question we are all asking. Why did Hamish use the dodgy poll findings without question? Surely the REAL story here was the fact that the Sun used them, and the mainstream media followed like lemmings. This is not what we expected of Cal Merc>
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Iwrote to Stewart re McDonnels hootsman reporting and got a dusty reply so I have moved to a publication, albeit the only one in Scotland which reports facts, not fiction and that is NEWSNET SCOTLAND. I may add that I have stopped buying newspapers because of the unfair lies and political bias, is it any wonder the circulation figures are plummeting in the so calles “quality papers”?
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For those of you who asked for coverage of the SPT expenses story, Hamish has now filed one.
Stewart Kirkpatrick
Editor, The Caledonian Mercury
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Yes, thanks. A bit late but a fair report. There may be hope for the CM if this is a new start.
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From the article writer:
“The SNP has always done worse in Westminster elections than it has in Holyrood elections and this year looks like it will be no different.”
A bold opinion though attaching a surreal sun yougov poll a lot more credence than an actual vote where uk parties fight against the SNP in Scotland which happened last year when Labour Westminster were beaten on votes in Scotland.
If you changed “Westminster” in the above quote to elections against “UK based parties”, then surely the European elections tell a different story where the SNP gained more votes against Labour UK only last year, the first time this has happened and surely worth a mention as a marker?
Or does this not count?
Where’s the story (or blatant non story) alleging that the Scottish Government are cooking the books over the referendum?
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Wow – newspaper reports poll, zany posters criticise journalist for reporting poll results. Do you people have any idea how you come across? It is positively creepy.
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Trying to spread you animosity from The Scotsman forum on to this so far reasonable journal. The poll is as dodgy as a Glenrothes by election count.
http://tinyurl.com/yhmrcqc another poll:
Sunday, February 21, 2010
ComRes subsample : SNP storm into lead
I haven’t been covering subsamples so much of late, but given the unanticipated new passion for them that the press and our friends in the Tory blogosphere have been exhibiting over the last few days, this one really can’t pass without comment. For the first time since late November, a ComRes poll is showing the SNP back in an outright lead over Labour. Here are the full figures -
SNP 34% (+9)
Labour 27% (-7)
Conservatives 22% (+5)
Liberal Democrats 11% (-5)
Others 6% (-1)
These numbers are even more startling given that, in the same poll, Labour have cut the Conservatives’ GB-wide lead to just eight points. Labour are down twelve points in Scotland on their 2005 general election share, compared to just a six point drop across Britain as a whole.
Posted by James Kelly at 3:40 PM
My my what ever next.
I do hope you fail in your ambition to spread your malicious spiteful bigotry on here.
Your are indeed positively creepy.
Missing you already.
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I have just taken a poll I hope will put this one into perspective:
Of those who expressed a preference 100% said they would not trust a Westminster parliamentarian any further than you could throw one.
Of those 100%: all said that would most likely vote SNP at a Westminster general election. The respondents all indicated that although Holyrood MSPs are no more likely to be honest than their London counterparts, at least they need Scottish votes to impliment their policies rather than Home Counties’, and working in the glass fronted office goldfish bowls of Holyrood they can be kept an eye on, unlike their anonymous London opposite number.
Sample 1
sample taken 22nd February 2010
Margin for error 0%
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